NYY vs HOU

SP Hayden Wesneski vs Gerrit Cole

Yankees 85%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (11.9pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (2.3pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.9pp).

Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp). Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Yankees has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Astros has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Astros has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Yankees has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Yankees ahead by 70pp.

Factor BalanceYankees favoredFactors 2:0(SP FIP·SP xFIP)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Astros 4.66vsYankees 3.67

Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (11.9pp).

Yankees edge · contribution +11.9pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Astros 4.51vsYankees 3.75

Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (2.3pp).

Yankees edge · contribution +2.3pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Astros 4.66vsYankees 3.67

Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.9pp).

Yankees edge · contribution +9.9pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Astros 0.319vsYankees 0.315

Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).

Astros edge · contribution -0.2pp

WAR

weight 8%

Astros 16.9vsYankees 17.2

Negligible gap in WAR.

Even

Recent Form

weight 10%

Astros 40.0%vsYankees 60.0%

Yankees has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Yankees edge · contribution +10pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Astros 100%vsYankees 0%

Astros has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Astros edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Astros 0.313vsYankees 0.321

Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Yankees edge · contribution +0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Astros 7.9%vsYankees 9.6%

Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Yankees edge · contribution +0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Astros 1516vsYankees 1502

Astros has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Astros edge · contribution -0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Yankees win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Astros @ Yankees · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Astros vs Yankees)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-26Astros @ Yankees3-9

Predicted:NYY→Actual NYYCorrect

2026-08-25Astros @ Yankees9-7

Predicted:NYY→Actual HOUWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time