NYY vs HOU

SP Ethan Pecko vs Will Warren

Yankees 85%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (12pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (2.3pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (10pp).

Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Situational — Yankees has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Astros has the edge in Elo (0.4pp). Yankees has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Yankees ahead by 70pp.

Factor BalanceYankees favoredFactors 2:0(SP FIP·SP xFIP)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Astros 4.64vsYankees 3.64

Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (12pp).

Yankees edge · contribution +12pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Astros 4.50vsYankees 3.75

Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (2.3pp).

Yankees edge · contribution +2.3pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Astros 4.64vsYankees 3.64

Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (10pp).

Yankees edge · contribution +10pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Astros 0.317vsYankees 0.314

Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).

Astros edge · contribution -0.2pp

WAR

weight 8%

Astros 16.4vsYankees 17.7

Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).

Yankees edge · contribution +0.1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Astros 40.0%vsYankees 60.0%

Yankees has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Yankees edge · contribution +10pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Astros 0.313vsYankees 0.319

Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Yankees edge · contribution +0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Astros 7.9%vsYankees 9.5%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Astros 1516vsYankees 1502

Astros has the edge in Elo (0.4pp).

Astros edge · contribution -0.4pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Yankees win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Astros @ Yankees · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time