NYM vs MIL

SP Jacob Misiorowski vs Sean Manaea

Brewers 53%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (5.5pp). Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.6pp).

Batting & Roster — Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp). Brewers has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).

Situational — Mets has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Mets has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Brewers has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Brewers has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Brewers ahead by 6pp.

Factor BalanceBrewers favoredFactors 1:0(Team WAR)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Brewers 3.57vsMets 4.03

Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (5.5pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -5.5pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Brewers 3.68vsMets 4.04

Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -1.1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Brewers 3.57vsMets 4.03

Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.6pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -4.6pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Brewers 0.324vsMets 0.308

Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.8pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -0.8pp

WAR

weight 8%

Brewers 19.1vsMets 11.0

Brewers has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -0.6pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Brewers 60.0%vsMets 70.0%

Mets has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Mets edge · contribution +5pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Brewers 50%vsMets 50%

Negligible gap in Head-to-Head.

Even

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Brewers 0.321vsMets 0.320

Negligible gap in Lineup xwOBA.

Even

Barrel%

weight 3%

Brewers 7.5%vsMets 8.6%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Brewers 1516vsMets 1487

Brewers has the edge in Elo (0.7pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -0.7pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mets win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Brewers @ Mets · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Brewers vs Mets)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-26Brewers @ Mets8-1

Predicted:MIL→Actual MILCorrect

2026-08-25Brewers @ Mets2-3

Predicted:MIL→Actual NYMWrong

2026-07-22Mets @ Brewers3-4

Predicted:MIL→Actual MILCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time