NYM vs MIL

SP Kyle Harrison vs Zac Thornton

Brewers 64%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (5.9pp). Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.9pp).

Batting & Roster — Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Brewers has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Brewers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Mets has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Brewers has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Brewers has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). Brewers has the edge in Elo (0.7pp). Brewers has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Brewers ahead by 28pp.

Factor BalanceBrewers favoredFactors 1:0(Team WAR)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Brewers 3.56vsMets 4.05

Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (5.9pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -5.9pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Brewers 3.68vsMets 4.05

Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -1.1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Brewers 3.56vsMets 4.05

Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.9pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -4.9pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Brewers 0.324vsMets 0.307

Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -0.9pp

WAR

weight 8%

Brewers 18.8vsMets 11.4

Brewers has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -0.6pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Brewers 70.0%vsMets 60.0%

Brewers has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -5pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Brewers 67%vsMets 33%

Brewers has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -0.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Brewers 0.322vsMets 0.319

Brewers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -0.1pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Brewers 7.5%vsMets 8.7%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Brewers 1516vsMets 1487

Brewers has the edge in Elo (0.7pp).

Brewers edge · contribution -0.7pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mets win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Brewers @ Mets · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Brewers vs Mets)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-07-22Mets @ Brewers3-4

Predicted:MIL→Actual MILCorrect

2026-07-21Mets @ Brewers4-0

Predicted:MIL→Actual NYMWrong

2026-07-20Mets @ Brewers3-8

Predicted:MIL→Actual MILCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time