SFG vs CIN

SP Nick Lodolo vs Landen Roupp

Giants 68%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Giants has the edge in SP FIP (6pp). Giants has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Giants has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5pp).

Batting & Roster — Giants has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Giants has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Reds has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp). Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Giants has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Giants has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Reds has the edge in Elo (0.3pp). Reds has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Giants ahead by 37pp.

Factor BalanceEvenFactors 1:1

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Reds 4.64vsGiants 4.14

Giants has the edge in SP FIP (6pp).

Giants edge · contribution +6pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Reds 4.63vsGiants 4.39

Giants has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).

Giants edge · contribution +0.7pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Reds 4.64vsGiants 4.14

Giants has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5pp).

Giants edge · contribution +5pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Reds 0.307vsGiants 0.310

Giants has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).

Giants edge · contribution +0.2pp

WAR

weight 8%

Reds 7.7vsGiants 11.2

Giants has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).

Giants edge · contribution +0.3pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Reds 30.0%vsGiants 30.0%

Negligible gap in Recent Form.

Even

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Reds 0%vsGiants 100%

Giants has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Giants edge · contribution +1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Reds 0.315vsGiants 0.309

Reds has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Reds edge · contribution -0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Reds 9.1%vsGiants 7.3%

Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Reds edge · contribution -0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Reds 1498vsGiants 1487

Reds has the edge in Elo (0.3pp).

Reds edge · contribution -0.3pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Giants win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Reds @ Giants · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Reds vs Giants)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-25Reds @ Giants1-3

Predicted:SFG→Actual SFGCorrect

2026-08-24Reds @ Giants0-5

Predicted:SFG→Actual SFGCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 9h before game time