SFG vs CIN

SP Brady Singer vs Adrian Houser

Giants 62%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Giants has the edge in SP FIP (5.9pp). Giants has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Giants has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.9pp).

Batting & Roster — Giants has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Giants has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Reds has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp). Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Giants has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Reds has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Reds has the edge in Elo (0.3pp). Reds has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Giants ahead by 23pp.

Factor BalanceReds favoredFactors 1:0(PF)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Reds 4.65vsGiants 4.16

Giants has the edge in SP FIP (5.9pp).

Giants edge · contribution +5.9pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Reds 4.64vsGiants 4.40

Giants has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).

Giants edge · contribution +0.7pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Reds 4.65vsGiants 4.16

Giants has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.9pp).

Giants edge · contribution +4.9pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Reds 0.308vsGiants 0.310

Giants has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).

Giants edge · contribution +0.1pp

WAR

weight 8%

Reds 6.5vsGiants 10.7

Giants has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).

Giants edge · contribution +0.3pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Reds 30.0%vsGiants 20.0%

Reds has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Reds edge · contribution -5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Reds 0.315vsGiants 0.308

Reds has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Reds edge · contribution -0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Reds 9.1%vsGiants 7.3%

Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Reds edge · contribution -0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Reds 1498vsGiants 1487

Reds has the edge in Elo (0.3pp).

Reds edge · contribution -0.3pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Giants win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Reds @ Giants · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Reds vs Giants)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-24Reds @ Giants0-5

Predicted:SFG→Actual SFGCorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time