LAA vs CLE

SP Joey Cantillo vs Grayson Rodriguez

Guardians 69%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (3.7pp). Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp). Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.1pp).

Batting & Roster — Guardians has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Guardians has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Angels has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Angels has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Guardians has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Guardians has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Guardians has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Guardians ahead by 39pp.

Factor BalanceGuardians favoredFactors 1:0(Team WAR)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Guardians 3.88vsAngels 4.19

Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (3.7pp).

Guardians edge · contribution -3.7pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Guardians 3.86vsAngels 4.20

Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp).

Guardians edge · contribution -1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Guardians 3.88vsAngels 4.19

Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.1pp).

Guardians edge · contribution -3.1pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Guardians 0.304vsAngels 0.303

Guardians has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).

Guardians edge · contribution -0.1pp

WAR

weight 8%

Guardians 14.5vsAngels 9.3

Guardians has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).

Guardians edge · contribution -0.4pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Guardians 70.0%vsAngels 40.0%

Guardians has the edge in Recent Form (15pp).

Guardians edge · contribution -15pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Guardians 100%vsAngels 0%

Guardians has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).

Guardians edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Guardians 0.305vsAngels 0.304

Negligible gap in Lineup xwOBA.

Even

Barrel%

weight 3%

Guardians 6.1%vsAngels 8.0%

Angels has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Angels edge · contribution +0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Guardians 1485vsAngels 1478

Guardians has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).

Guardians edge · contribution -0.2pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Angels win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Guardians @ Angels · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Guardians vs Angels)

Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-25Guardians @ Angels8-6

Predicted:CLE→Actual CLECorrect

2026-08-24Guardians @ Angels4-2

Predicted:CLE→Actual CLECorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 10h before game time