LAA vs CLE

SP Gavin Williams vs Walbert Ureña

Guardians 57%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp). Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp). Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).

Batting & Roster — Guardians has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Angels has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Angels has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Guardians has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Guardians has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).

Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Guardians ahead by 15pp.

Factor BalanceGuardians favoredFactors 1:0(Team WAR)

9 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Guardians 3.89vsAngels 4.18

Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp).

Guardians edge · contribution -3.5pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Guardians 3.87vsAngels 4.20

Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (1pp).

Guardians edge · contribution -1pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Guardians 3.89vsAngels 4.18

Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).

Guardians edge · contribution -2.9pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Guardians 0.304vsAngels 0.304

Negligible gap in Lineup wOBA.

Even

WAR

weight 8%

Guardians 14.9vsAngels 8.2

Guardians has the edge in WAR (0.5pp).

Guardians edge · contribution -0.5pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Guardians 60.0%vsAngels 50.0%

Guardians has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

Guardians edge · contribution -5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Guardians 0.304vsAngels 0.304

Negligible gap in Lineup xwOBA.

Even

Barrel%

weight 3%

Guardians 6.1%vsAngels 8.0%

Angels has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Angels edge · contribution +0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Guardians 1485vsAngels 1478

Guardians has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).

Guardians edge · contribution -0.2pp

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Angels win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Guardians @ Angels · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Guardians vs Angels)

Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-08-24Guardians @ Angels4-2

Predicted:CLE→Actual CLECorrect

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 15h before game time