CHW vs TEX
SP MacKenzie Gore vs Sean Burke
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Rangers has the edge in SP FIP (2.2pp). Rangers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Rangers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.8pp).
Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — White Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rangers has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). White Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Rangers ahead by 7pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Rangers has the edge in SP FIP (2.2pp).
Rangers edge · contribution -2.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rangers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).
Rangers edge · contribution -0.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Rangers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.8pp).
Rangers edge · contribution -1.8pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
White Sox edge · contribution +0.3pp
WAR
weight 8%White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).
White Sox edge · contribution +0.2pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Rangers has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).
Rangers edge · contribution -5pp
Head-to-Head
weight 3%Negligible gap in Head-to-Head.
Even
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
White Sox edge · contribution +0.3pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Negligible gap in Elo.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final White Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Rangers @ White Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Rangers vs White Sox)
Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time