CHW vs TEX

SP Kumar Rocker vs TBD

White Sox 58%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Rangers has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp). Rangers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Rangers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).

Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).

Situational — White Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). White Sox has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). White Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp). White Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with White Sox ahead by 17pp.

Factor BalanceEvenFactors 0:0

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Rangers 4.08vsWhite Sox 4.23

Rangers has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp).

Rangers edge · contribution -1.8pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Rangers 4.06vsWhite Sox 4.29

Rangers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).

Rangers edge · contribution -0.7pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Rangers 4.08vsWhite Sox 4.23

Rangers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).

Rangers edge · contribution -1.5pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Rangers 0.311vsWhite Sox 0.320

White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).

White Sox edge · contribution +0.5pp

WAR

weight 8%

Rangers 14.7vsWhite Sox 18.2

White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).

White Sox edge · contribution +0.3pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Rangers 40.0%vsWhite Sox 50.0%

White Sox has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).

White Sox edge · contribution +5pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Rangers 33%vsWhite Sox 67%

White Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp).

White Sox edge · contribution +0.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Rangers 0.305vsWhite Sox 0.319

White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).

White Sox edge · contribution +0.4pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Rangers 7.2%vsWhite Sox 8.6%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Elo

weight 10%

Rangers 1498vsWhite Sox 1499

Negligible gap in Elo.

Even

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final White Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Rangers @ White Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Rangers vs White Sox)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-07-22White Sox @ Rangers4-2

Predicted:TEX→Actual CHWWrong

2026-07-21White Sox @ Rangers0-10

Predicted:TEX→Actual TEXCorrect

2026-07-20White Sox @ Rangers10-3

Predicted:TEX→Actual CHWWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time