WSN vs COL

SP Ryan Feltner vs Cade Cavalli

Nationals 51%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Nationals has the edge in SP FIP (1.4pp). Nationals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Nationals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.2pp).

Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (1.1pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Nationals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rockies has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Nationals has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp).

Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Nationals ahead by 3pp.

Factor BalanceNationals favoredFactors 1:0(Team WAR)

10 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Rockies 4.85vsNationals 4.73

Nationals has the edge in SP FIP (1.4pp).

Nationals edge · contribution +1.4pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Rockies 4.73vsNationals 4.47

Nationals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp).

Nationals edge · contribution +0.8pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Rockies 4.85vsNationals 4.73

Nationals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.2pp).

Nationals edge · contribution +1.2pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Rockies 0.324vsNationals 0.330

Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).

Nationals edge · contribution +0.3pp

WAR

weight 8%

Rockies 6.7vsNationals 20.1

Nationals has the edge in WAR (1.1pp).

Nationals edge · contribution +1.1pp

Recent Form

weight 10%

Rockies 40.0%vsNationals 20.0%

Rockies has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).

Rockies edge · contribution -10pp

Head-to-Head

weight 3%

Rockies 33%vsNationals 67%

Nationals has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp).

Nationals edge · contribution +0.5pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Rockies 0.308vsNationals 0.328

Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp).

Nationals edge · contribution +0.5pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Rockies 6.5%vsNationals 9.1%

Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Nationals edge · contribution +0.1pp

Elo

weight 10%

Rockies 1488vsNationals 1488

Negligible gap in Elo.

Even

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Nationals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.

Rockies @ Nationals · final [15%, 85%] clamp

Recent Meetings (Rockies vs Nationals)

Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result

2026-07-22Nationals @ Rockies8-0

Predicted:COL→Actual WSNWrong

2026-07-21Nationals @ Rockies7-8

Predicted:COL→Actual COLCorrect

2026-07-20Nationals @ Rockies7-3

Predicted:COL→Actual WSNWrong

Model metadata

Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time