WSN vs COL
SP Ryan Feltner vs Cade Cavalli
Final: COL 3 - 13 WSN
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Nationals has the edge in SP FIP (1.4pp). Nationals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Nationals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (1.1pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Nationals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rockies has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Nationals has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.5pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Nationals ahead by 3pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Nationals has the edge in SP FIP (1.4pp).
Nationals edge · contribution +1.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Nationals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp).
Nationals edge · contribution +0.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Nationals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.2pp).
Nationals edge · contribution +1.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Nationals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Rockies @ Nationals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 12h before game time