SP FIP
weight 12%Angels 4.18vsRangers 4.11
Rangers has the edge in SP FIP (0.8pp).
Rangers edge · contribution +0.8pp
TEX vs LAA
LAA 51%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Rangers has the edge in SP FIP (0.8pp). Rangers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Rangers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Rangers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Rangers has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).
Situational — Rangers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Angels has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Rangers has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Angels ahead by 2pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Angels 4.19vsRangers 4.06
Rangers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).
Rangers edge · contribution +0.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Angels 4.18vsRangers 4.11
Rangers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.7pp).
Rangers edge · contribution +0.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Angels 0.304vsRangers 0.313
Rangers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Rangers edge · contribution +0.5pp
WAR
weight 8%Angels 7.7vsRangers 15.0
Rangers has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).
Rangers edge · contribution +0.6pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Angels 60.0%vsRangers 40.0%
Angels has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).
Angels edge · contribution -10pp
Head-to-Head
weight 3%Angels 50%vsRangers 50%
Negligible gap in Head-to-Head.
Even
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Angels 0.305vsRangers 0.305
Negligible gap in Lineup xwOBA.
Even
Barrel%
weight 3%Angels 8.0%vsRangers 7.3%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Angels 1478vsRangers 1498
Rangers has the edge in Elo (0.5pp).
Rangers edge · contribution +0.5pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rangers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Angels @ Rangers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Angels vs Rangers)
Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result