SEA vs CHC
SP Shota Imanaga vs Bryce Miller
Final: CHC 19 - 2 SEA
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (10.1pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.4pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.5pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.4pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Mariners has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (1.3pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Mariners ahead by 44pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (10.1pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +10.1pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +1.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.4pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +8.4pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mariners win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cubs @ Mariners · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative