SP FIP
weight 12%Cubs 4.69vsMariners 3.85
Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (10.1pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +10.1pp
SEA vs CHC
SEA 72%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (10.1pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.4pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.5pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.4pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Mariners has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Cubs has the edge in Elo (1.3pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Mariners ahead by 44pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cubs 4.26vsMariners 3.87
Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +1.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Cubs 4.69vsMariners 3.85
Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.4pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +8.4pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cubs 0.333vsMariners 0.304
Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.5pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -1.5pp
WAR
weight 8%Cubs 28.9vsMariners 11.8
Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.4pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -1.4pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Cubs 50.0%vsMariners 50.0%
Negligible gap in Recent Form.
Even
Head-to-Head
weight 3%Cubs 0%vsMariners 100%
Mariners has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +1.5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Cubs 0.320vsMariners 0.316
Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Cubs 7.3%vsMariners 7.5%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Cubs 1533vsMariners 1481
Cubs has the edge in Elo (1.3pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -1.3pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mariners win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cubs @ Mariners · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Cubs vs Mariners)
Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result