SP FIP
weight 12%Cubs 4.70vsMariners 3.77
Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (11.2pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +11.2pp
SEA vs CHC
SEA 74%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (11.2pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.4pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.3pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Mariners has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.3pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Mariners ahead by 48pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cubs 4.26vsMariners 3.87
Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (1.2pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +1.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Cubs 4.70vsMariners 3.77
Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.3pp).
Mariners edge · contribution +9.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cubs 0.333vsMariners 0.305
Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.4pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -1.4pp
WAR
weight 8%Cubs 28.2vsMariners 11.8
Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.3pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -1.3pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Cubs 0.320vsMariners 0.316
Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Cubs edge · contribution -0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Cubs 7.3%vsMariners 7.5%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Mariners win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Cubs @ Mariners · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Cubs vs Mariners)
Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result