SP FIP
weight 12%Cardinals 4.06vsPhillies 3.77
Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +3.5pp
PHI vs STL
PHI 74%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Cardinals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Phillies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Phillies has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 48pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cardinals 4.21vsPhillies 3.54
Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Cardinals 4.06vsPhillies 3.77
Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +2.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cardinals 0.310vsPhillies 0.313
Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +0.2pp
WAR
weight 8%Cardinals 14.3vsPhillies 12.1
Cardinals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -0.2pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Cardinals 60.0%vsPhillies 80.0%
Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (10pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +10pp
Head-to-Head
weight 3%Cardinals 50%vsPhillies 50%
Negligible gap in Head-to-Head.
Even
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Cardinals 0.323vsPhillies 0.320
Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Cardinals 7.6%vsPhillies 7.3%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Cardinals 1489vsPhillies 1497
Phillies has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +0.2pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Phillies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cardinals @ Phillies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Cardinals vs Phillies)
Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result