PHI vs STL
SP Kyle Leahy vs Cristopher Sánchez
Final: STL 4 - 6 PHI
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Cardinals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Phillies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Phillies has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 48pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +3.5pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +2.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Phillies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cardinals @ Phillies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative