SP FIP
weight 12%Cardinals 4.08vsPhillies 3.77
Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (3.7pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +3.7pp
PHI vs STL
PHI 64%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (3.7pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Cardinals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Phillies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 29pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cardinals 4.22vsPhillies 3.55
Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (2pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Cardinals 4.08vsPhillies 3.77
Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.1pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +3.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Cardinals 0.309vsPhillies 0.312
Phillies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +0.2pp
WAR
weight 8%Cardinals 13.4vsPhillies 11.1
Cardinals has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -0.2pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Cardinals 0.323vsPhillies 0.319
Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Cardinals 7.5%vsPhillies 7.3%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Phillies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Cardinals @ Phillies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Cardinals vs Phillies)
Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result