NYY vs TOR
SP José Soriano vs Carlos Rodón
Final: TOR 3 - 8 NYY
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.7pp). Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Yankees has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Yankees has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Yankees ahead by 39pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +3.5pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +0.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +2.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Yankees win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Blue Jays @ Yankees · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative