SP FIP
weight 12%Blue Jays 3.94vsYankees 3.65
Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +3.5pp
NYY vs TOR
NYY 70%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.7pp). Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Yankees has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Yankees has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Yankees ahead by 39pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Blue Jays 4.05vsYankees 3.74
Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +0.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Blue Jays 3.94vsYankees 3.65
Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +2.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Blue Jays 0.302vsYankees 0.313
Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +0.6pp
WAR
weight 8%Blue Jays 14.2vsYankees 17.4
Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.3pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +0.3pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Blue Jays 60.0%vsYankees 70.0%
Yankees has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +5pp
Head-to-Head
weight 3%Blue Jays 50%vsYankees 50%
Negligible gap in Head-to-Head.
Even
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Blue Jays 0.294vsYankees 0.320
Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.7pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +0.7pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Blue Jays 5.8%vsYankees 9.6%
Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +0.1pp
Elo
weight 10%Blue Jays 1502vsYankees 1502
Negligible gap in Elo.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Yankees win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Blue Jays @ Yankees · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Blue Jays vs Yankees)
Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result