SP FIP
weight 12%Blue Jays 3.96vsYankees 3.66
Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (3.6pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +3.6pp
NYY vs TOR
NYY 65%
Final: TOR 1 - 3 NYY
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (3.6pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3pp).
Batting & Roster — Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Yankees has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Yankees ahead by 30pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Blue Jays 4.05vsYankees 3.74
Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +0.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Blue Jays 3.96vsYankees 3.66
Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Blue Jays 0.299vsYankees 0.313
Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +0.7pp
WAR
weight 8%Blue Jays 12.4vsYankees 16.9
Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +0.4pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Blue Jays 0.295vsYankees 0.319
Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.6pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +0.6pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Blue Jays 5.8%vsYankees 9.5%
Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +0.1pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Yankees win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Blue Jays @ Yankees · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Blue Jays vs Yankees)
Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result