SP FIP
weight 12%Athletics 4.96vsAstros 4.64
Astros has the edge in SP FIP (3.8pp).
Astros edge · contribution +3.8pp
HOU vs ATH
HOU 82%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Astros has the edge in SP FIP (3.8pp). Astros has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp). Astros has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Astros has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Astros has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Astros has the edge in Recent Form (15pp). Astros has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Astros has the edge in Elo (1.5pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Astros ahead by 63pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Athletics 4.60vsAstros 4.52
Astros has the edge in SP xFIP (0.2pp).
Astros edge · contribution +0.2pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Athletics 4.96vsAstros 4.64
Astros has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.2pp).
Astros edge · contribution +3.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Athletics 0.315vsAstros 0.318
Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Astros edge · contribution +0.2pp
WAR
weight 8%Athletics 11.0vsAstros 16.6
Astros has the edge in WAR (0.5pp).
Astros edge · contribution +0.5pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Athletics 20.0%vsAstros 50.0%
Astros has the edge in Recent Form (15pp).
Astros edge · contribution +15pp
Head-to-Head
weight 3%Athletics 0%vsAstros 100%
Astros has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).
Astros edge · contribution +1.5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Athletics 0.311vsAstros 0.314
Astros has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Astros edge · contribution +0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Athletics 7.6%vsAstros 7.9%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Athletics 1456vsAstros 1516
Astros has the edge in Elo (1.5pp).
Astros edge · contribution +1.5pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Athletics @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Athletics vs Astros)
Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result