SP FIP
weight 12%Athletics 4.97vsAstros 4.68
Astros has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp).
Astros edge · contribution +3.5pp
HOU vs ATH
HOU 63%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Astros has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp). Astros has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Astros has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Astros has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Astros has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Astros ahead by 26pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Athletics 4.57vsAstros 4.53
Astros has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp).
Astros edge · contribution +0.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Athletics 4.97vsAstros 4.68
Astros has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Astros edge · contribution +2.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Athletics 0.317vsAstros 0.320
Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Astros edge · contribution +0.2pp
WAR
weight 8%Athletics 11.6vsAstros 16.8
Astros has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).
Astros edge · contribution +0.4pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Athletics 0.312vsAstros 0.315
Astros has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Astros edge · contribution +0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Athletics 7.7%vsAstros 8.0%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Athletics @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Athletics vs Astros)
Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result