SP FIP
weight 12%Mets 4.04vsWhite Sox 4.19
Mets has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp).
Mets edge · contribution -1.8pp
CHW vs NYM
CHW 55%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).
Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).
Situational — White Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). White Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). White Sox has the edge in Elo (0.3pp). White Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with White Sox ahead by 9pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mets 4.05vsWhite Sox 4.28
Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).
Mets edge · contribution -0.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mets 4.04vsWhite Sox 4.19
Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).
Mets edge · contribution -1.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Mets 0.306vsWhite Sox 0.319
White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp).
White Sox edge · contribution +0.7pp
WAR
weight 8%Mets 10.8vsWhite Sox 17.9
White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).
White Sox edge · contribution +0.6pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Mets 60.0%vsWhite Sox 60.0%
Negligible gap in Recent Form.
Even
Head-to-Head
weight 3%Mets 0%vsWhite Sox 100%
White Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).
White Sox edge · contribution +1.5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Mets 0.319vsWhite Sox 0.319
Negligible gap in Lineup xwOBA.
Even
Barrel%
weight 3%Mets 8.6%vsWhite Sox 8.6%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Elo
weight 10%Mets 1487vsWhite Sox 1499
White Sox has the edge in Elo (0.3pp).
White Sox edge · contribution +0.3pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final White Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Mets @ White Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Mets vs White Sox)
Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result