CHW vs NYM
SP Nolan McLean vs Sean Newcomb
Final: NYM 1 - 2 CHW
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).
Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).
Situational — White Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). White Sox has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). White Sox has the edge in Elo (0.3pp). White Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with White Sox ahead by 9pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Mets has the edge in SP FIP (1.8pp).
Mets edge · contribution -1.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).
Mets edge · contribution -0.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.5pp).
Mets edge · contribution -1.5pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final White Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Mets @ White Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative