CHW vs NYM

CHW 51%

Final: NYM 4 - 6 CHW

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Mets has the edge in SP FIP (2.9pp). Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.4pp).

Batting & Roster — White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).

Situational — White Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). White Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with White Sox ahead by 2pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Mets 4.00vsWhite Sox 4.24

Mets has the edge in SP FIP (2.9pp).

Mets edge · contribution -2.9pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Mets 4.05vsWhite Sox 4.33

Mets has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp).

Mets edge · contribution -0.8pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Mets 4.00vsWhite Sox 4.24

Mets has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.4pp).

Mets edge · contribution -2.4pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Mets 0.306vsWhite Sox 0.320

White Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp).

White Sox edge · contribution +0.7pp

WAR

weight 8%

Mets 10.3vsWhite Sox 17.7

White Sox has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).

White Sox edge · contribution +0.6pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Mets 0.319vsWhite Sox 0.318

Negligible gap in Lineup xwOBA.

Even

Barrel%

weight 3%

Mets 8.6%vsWhite Sox 8.4%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final White Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Mets @ White Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp