SP FIP
weight 12%Reds 4.65vsDiamondbacks 4.37
Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (3.4pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution +3.4pp
ARI vs CIN
ARI 70%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (3.4pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.8pp).
Batting & Roster — Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in WAR (0.8pp). Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Diamondbacks has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Elo (0.2pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Diamondbacks ahead by 41pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Reds 4.63vsDiamondbacks 4.49
Diamondbacks has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution +0.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Reds 4.65vsDiamondbacks 4.37
Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.8pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution +2.8pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Reds 0.306vsDiamondbacks 0.315
Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution +0.5pp
WAR
weight 8%Reds 5.5vsDiamondbacks 15.7
Diamondbacks has the edge in WAR (0.8pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution +0.8pp
Recent Form
weight 10%Reds 40.0%vsDiamondbacks 50.0%
Diamondbacks has the edge in Recent Form (5pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution +5pp
Head-to-Head
weight 3%Reds 0%vsDiamondbacks 100%
Diamondbacks has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution +1.5pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Reds 0.314vsDiamondbacks 0.314
Negligible gap in Lineup xwOBA.
Even
Barrel%
weight 3%Reds 9.1%vsDiamondbacks 7.0%
Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Reds edge · contribution -0.1pp
Elo
weight 10%Reds 1498vsDiamondbacks 1508
Diamondbacks has the edge in Elo (0.2pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution +0.2pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Diamondbacks win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Reds @ Diamondbacks · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Reds vs Diamondbacks)
Last 2 games — our model's prediction vs actual result