SP FIP
weight 12%Reds 4.64vsDiamondbacks 4.34
Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (3.6pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution +3.6pp
ARI vs CIN
ARI 63%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Diamondbacks has the edge in SP FIP (3.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3pp).
Batting & Roster — Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Reds has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp). Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Diamondbacks has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Diamondbacks ahead by 27pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Reds 4.61vsDiamondbacks 4.49
Diamondbacks has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution +0.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Reds 4.64vsDiamondbacks 4.34
Diamondbacks has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution +3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Reds 0.308vsDiamondbacks 0.313
Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution +0.3pp
WAR
weight 8%Reds 6.4vsDiamondbacks 14.3
Diamondbacks has the edge in WAR (0.6pp).
Diamondbacks edge · contribution +0.6pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Reds 0.315vsDiamondbacks 0.312
Reds has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Reds edge · contribution -0.1pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Reds 9.1%vsDiamondbacks 7.1%
Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Reds edge · contribution -0.1pp
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Diamondbacks win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Reds @ Diamondbacks · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Reds vs Diamondbacks)
Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result