SP FIP
weight 12%Yankees 3.66vsOrioles 4.08
Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (5pp).
Yankees edge · contribution -5pp
BAL vs NYY
NYY 55%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (5pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Orioles has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Yankees ahead by 10pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Yankees 3.74vsOrioles 4.27
Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp).
Yankees edge · contribution -1.6pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Yankees 3.66vsOrioles 4.08
Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.2pp).
Yankees edge · contribution -4.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Yankees 0.313vsOrioles 0.317
Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Orioles edge · contribution +0.2pp
WAR
weight 8%Yankees 16.9vsOrioles 16.7
Negligible gap in WAR.
Even
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Yankees 0.320vsOrioles 0.326
Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Orioles edge · contribution +0.2pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Yankees 9.6%vsOrioles 8.7%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Orioles win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Yankees @ Orioles · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Yankees vs Orioles)
Last 1 games — our model's prediction vs actual result