BAL vs NYY
Final: NYY 3 - 1 BAL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (4.7pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Orioles has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Yankees ahead by 9pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (4.7pp).
Yankees edge · contribution -4.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp).
Yankees edge · contribution -1.6pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.9pp).
Yankees edge · contribution -3.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Orioles win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Yankees @ Orioles · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative