BAL vs NYY

NYY 54%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (4.7pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.9pp).

Batting & Roster — Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Situational — Orioles has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Yankees ahead by 9pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP

weight 12%

Yankees 3.66vsOrioles 4.05

Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (4.7pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -4.7pp

SP xFIP

weight 3%

Yankees 3.74vsOrioles 4.26

Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -1.6pp

Bullpen FIP

weight 10%

Yankees 3.66vsOrioles 4.05

Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.9pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -3.9pp

Lineup wOBA

weight 10%

Yankees 0.313vsOrioles 0.316

Orioles has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).

Orioles edge · contribution +0.2pp

WAR

weight 8%

Yankees 17.2vsOrioles 16.2

Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.1pp).

Yankees edge · contribution -0.1pp

Lineup xwOBA

weight 5%

Yankees 0.320vsOrioles 0.326

Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).

Orioles edge · contribution +0.2pp

Barrel%

weight 3%

Yankees 9.6%vsOrioles 8.7%

Negligible gap in Barrel%.

Even

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Orioles win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Yankees @ Orioles · final [15%, 85%] clamp