SP FIP
weight 12%Marlins 3.98vsPhillies 3.77
Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (2.5pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +2.5pp
PHI vs MIA
PHI 62%
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (2.5pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Marlins has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Phillies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 23pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP xFIP
weight 3%Marlins 4.14vsPhillies 3.55
Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +1.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Marlins 3.98vsPhillies 3.77
Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.1pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +2.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Marlins 0.321vsPhillies 0.312
Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -0.5pp
WAR
weight 8%Marlins 15.7vsPhillies 10.7
Marlins has the edge in WAR (0.4pp).
Marlins edge · contribution -0.4pp
Lineup xwOBA
weight 5%Marlins 0.309vsPhillies 0.319
Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +0.3pp
Barrel%
weight 3%Marlins 6.7%vsPhillies 7.4%
Negligible gap in Barrel%.
Even
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Phillies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Marlins @ Phillies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Recent Meetings (Marlins vs Phillies)
Last 3 games — our model's prediction vs actual result