PHI vs MIA

PHI 62%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (2.8pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.3pp).

Batting & Roster — Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Marlins has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).

Situational — Phillies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 24pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 3.75 / 3.98
SP xFIP: 3.54 / 4.14
Bullpen FIP: 3.75 / 3.98
Lineup wOBA: 0.312 / 0.321
WAR: 10.61 / 15.46
Lineup xwOBA: 0.32 / 0.308
Barrel%: 7.4 / 6.7

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Phillies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Marlins @ Phillies · final [15%, 85%] clamp