PHI vs MIA
Final: MIA 5 - 6 PHI
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (2.8pp). Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp). Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.3pp).
Batting & Roster — Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Marlins has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Phillies has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Phillies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Phillies has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Phillies ahead by 24pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Phillies has the edge in SP FIP (2.8pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +2.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Phillies has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +1.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Phillies has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.3pp).
Phillies edge · contribution +2.3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Marlins has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Phillies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Marlins @ Phillies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative