TBR vs BAL

TBR 57%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (0.5pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.4pp).

Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Orioles has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Orioles has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Rays ahead by 14pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 4.03 / 4.07
SP xFIP: 3.99 / 4.25
Bullpen FIP: 4.03 / 4.07
Lineup wOBA: 0.325 / 0.316
WAR: 18.59 / 15.45
Lineup xwOBA: 0.307 / 0.325
Barrel%: 5.8 / 8.7

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Orioles @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp