PIT vs BOS
Final: BOS 4 - 8 PIT
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3pp).
Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Pirates has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Red Sox ahead by 3pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.6pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -3.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -0.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -3pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Red Sox @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative