PIT vs BOS

BOS 51%

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3pp).

Batting & Roster — Pirates has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Pirates has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).

Situational — Pirates has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Red Sox ahead by 3pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 3.96 / 3.66
SP xFIP: 4.06 / 3.79
Bullpen FIP: 3.96 / 3.66
Lineup wOBA: 0.327 / 0.317
WAR: 15.23 / 15.32
Lineup xwOBA: 0.316 / 0.311
Barrel%: 7.9 / 7.3

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Pirates win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Red Sox @ Pirates · final [15%, 85%] clamp