CLE vs SDP
Final: SDP 7 - 5 CLE
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp). Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp). Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Padres has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). Padres has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Guardians has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Guardians ahead by 25pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Guardians has the edge in SP FIP (3.5pp).
Guardians edge · contribution +3.5pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Guardians has the edge in SP xFIP (1.1pp).
Guardians edge · contribution +1.1pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Guardians has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.9pp).
Guardians edge · contribution +2.9pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Padres has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Guardians win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Padres @ Guardians · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative