TOR vs BOS
Final: BOS 3 - 5 TOR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.7pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.1pp).
Batting & Roster — Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.3pp). Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp).
Situational — Blue Jays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Blue Jays ahead by 10pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (3.7pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -3.7pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -0.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.1pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -3.1pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Blue Jays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Red Sox @ Blue Jays · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative