ATH vs TBR

ATH 55%

Final: TBR 12 - 4 ATH

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (11.6pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.7pp).

Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Athletics has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp). Athletics has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Athletics has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rays has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Athletics ahead by 10pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 5 / 4.03
SP xFIP: 4.59 / 3.99
Bullpen FIP: 5 / 4.03
Lineup wOBA: 0.314 / 0.324
WAR: 10.52 / 18.53
Lineup xwOBA: 0.31 / 0.307
Barrel%: 7.7 / 5.8

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Athletics win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Rays @ Athletics · final [15%, 85%] clamp