ATH vs TBR
Final: TBR 12 - 4 ATH
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (11.6pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Athletics has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp). Athletics has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Athletics has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rays has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a close contest with Athletics ahead by 10pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Rays has the edge in SP FIP (11.6pp).
Rays edge · contribution -11.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp).
Rays edge · contribution -1.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (9.7pp).
Rays edge · contribution -9.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Athletics win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Rays @ Athletics · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative