SDP vs HOU
Final: HOU 6 - 3 SDP
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Padres has the edge in SP FIP (6pp). Padres has the edge in SP xFIP (0.8pp). Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (5pp).
Batting & Roster — Astros has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Astros has the edge in WAR (0.2pp).
Situational — Padres has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Padres ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4.19 / 4.69
- SP xFIP
- 4.26 / 4.52
- Bullpen FIP
- 4.19 / 4.69
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.309 / 0.319
- WAR
- 13.94 / 16.58
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.317 / 0.317
- Barrel%
- 8.2 / 8.1
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Padres win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Astros @ Padres · final [15%, 85%] clamp