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MoneyBallScore

TBR vs CHW

TBR 56%

Final: CHW 0 - 1 TBR

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (1.6pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (1.3pp).

Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). White Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). White Sox has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). White Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Rays ahead by 11pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP
4.03 / 4.16
SP xFIP
3.99 / 4.3
Bullpen FIP
4.03 / 4.16
Lineup wOBA
0.324 / 0.318
WAR
18.53 / 15.73
Lineup xwOBA
0.307 / 0.317
Barrel%
5.8 / 8.4

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

White Sox @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp