TBR vs SEA
Final: SEA 8 - 2 TBR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Mariners has the edge in SP FIP (3.4pp). Mariners has the edge in SP xFIP (0.4pp). Mariners has the edge in Bullpen FIP (2.8pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.1pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). Mariners has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Mariners has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Rays ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4.03 / 3.75
- SP xFIP
- 3.99 / 3.86
- Bullpen FIP
- 4.03 / 3.75
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.324 / 0.303
- WAR
- 18.53 / 10.67
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.307 / 0.318
- Barrel%
- 5.8 / 7.8
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Mariners @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp