TBR vs NYY
Final: NYY 0 - 3 TBR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (4.3pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp). Yankees has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp). Yankees has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Rays ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (4.3pp).
Yankees edge · contribution -4.3pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (0.7pp).
Yankees edge · contribution -0.7pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.6pp).
Yankees edge · contribution -3.6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.4pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Yankees @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative