HOU vs TBR
Final: TBR 8 - 10 HOU
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (7.9pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.6pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Astros has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp). Astros has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Astros has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Astros has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Astros ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4.69 / 4.03
- SP xFIP
- 4.52 / 3.99
- Bullpen FIP
- 4.69 / 4.03
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.319 / 0.324
- WAR
- 16.58 / 18.53
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.317 / 0.307
- Barrel%
- 8.1 / 5.8
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Astros win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Rays @ Astros · final [15%, 85%] clamp