KCR vs TBR
Final: TBR 5 - 2 KCR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (8pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.7pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.7pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.5pp). Royals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp). Royals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Royals ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4.7 / 4.03
- SP xFIP
- 4.55 / 3.99
- Bullpen FIP
- 4.7 / 4.03
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.31 / 0.324
- WAR
- 12.86 / 18.53
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.31 / 0.307
- Barrel%
- 7.9 / 5.8
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Rays @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp