CHC vs SDP
Final: SDP 7 - 9 CHC
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Padres has the edge in SP FIP (5.5pp). Cubs has the edge in SP xFIP (0.1pp). Padres has the edge in Bullpen FIP (4.6pp).
Batting & Roster — Cubs has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1.3pp). Cubs has the edge in WAR (1.1pp). Cubs has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Cubs has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Cubs has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Cubs ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4.65 / 4.19
- SP xFIP
- 4.24 / 4.26
- Bullpen FIP
- 4.65 / 4.19
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.335 / 0.309
- WAR
- 27.66 / 13.94
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.322 / 0.317
- Barrel%
- 7.3 / 8.2
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cubs win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Padres @ Cubs · final [15%, 85%] clamp