BOS vs WSN

BOS 56%

Final: WSN 3 - 6 BOS

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (13.7pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (2.2pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (11.4pp).

Batting & Roster — Nationals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.9pp). Nationals has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Nationals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.5pp). Nationals has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).

Situational — Red Sox has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Red Sox has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Red Sox ahead by 11pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 3.66 / 4.8
SP xFIP: 3.79 / 4.51
Bullpen FIP: 3.66 / 4.8
Lineup wOBA: 0.317 / 0.335
WAR: 15.32 / 20.78
Lineup xwOBA: 0.311 / 0.331
Barrel%: 7.3 / 9.1

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Red Sox win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Nationals @ Red Sox · final [15%, 85%] clamp