TBR vs ARI
Final: ARI 1 - 5 TBR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Rays has the edge in SP FIP (3.8pp). Rays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.5pp). Rays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Rays has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.6pp). Rays has the edge in WAR (0.4pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Rays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Diamondbacks has the edge in Park Factor (0.2pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Rays ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4.03 / 4.35
- SP xFIP
- 3.99 / 4.49
- Bullpen FIP
- 4.03 / 4.35
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.324 / 0.313
- WAR
- 18.53 / 13.57
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.307 / 0.313
- Barrel%
- 5.8 / 7
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Diamondbacks @ Rays · final [15%, 85%] clamp