COL vs BOS
Final: BOS 5 - 2 COL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (14pp). Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (2.8pp). Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (11.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp). Red Sox has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Red Sox has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Rockies has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Rockies has the edge in Park Factor (0.6pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Rockies ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Red Sox has the edge in SP FIP (14pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -14pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Red Sox has the edge in SP xFIP (2.8pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -2.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Red Sox has the edge in Bullpen FIP (11.7pp).
Red Sox edge · contribution -11.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Rockies has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.5pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rockies win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Red Sox @ Rockies · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative