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MoneyBallScore

TEX vs SDP

TEX 56%

Final: SDP 7 - 9 TEX

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Rangers has the edge in SP FIP (0.7pp). Rangers has the edge in SP xFIP (0.5pp). Rangers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.6pp).

Batting & Roster — Rangers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.3pp). Rangers has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Padres has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).

Situational — Rangers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Rangers ahead by 11pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP
4.13 / 4.19
SP xFIP
4.08 / 4.26
Bullpen FIP
4.13 / 4.19
Lineup wOBA
0.315 / 0.309
WAR
14.84 / 13.94
Lineup xwOBA
0.307 / 0.317
Barrel%
7.4 / 8.2

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Rangers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Padres @ Rangers · final [15%, 85%] clamp