KCR vs STL
Final: STL 5 - 6 KCR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (7.2pp). Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6pp).
Batting & Roster — Royals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).
Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Royals ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (7.2pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -7.2pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -0.9pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6pp).
Cardinals edge · contribution -6pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Royals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cardinals @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: v1.0 · debate version v1-narrative