KCR vs STL

KCR 56%

Final: STL 6 - 14 KCR

AI Analysis Summary

Pitching — Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (7.2pp). Cardinals has the edge in SP xFIP (0.9pp). Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (6pp).

Batting & Roster — Royals has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Royals has the edge in WAR (0.1pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.3pp).

Situational — Royals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Royals has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).

Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Royals ahead by 11pp.

7 Factor Breakdown

SP FIP: 4.7 / 4.1
SP xFIP: 4.55 / 4.25
Bullpen FIP: 4.7 / 4.1
Lineup wOBA: 0.31 / 0.308
WAR: 12.86 / 12.02
Lineup xwOBA: 0.31 / 0.323
Barrel%: 7.9 / 7.4

Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)

Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Royals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.

Cardinals @ Royals · final [15%, 85%] clamp