STL vs SDP
Final: SDP 2 - 3 STL
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Cardinals has the edge in SP FIP (1.1pp). Cardinals has the edge in Bullpen FIP (0.9pp).
Batting & Roster — Padres has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.1pp). Padres has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Cardinals has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.2pp).
Situational — Cardinals has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Padres has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 7 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a slight edge with Cardinals ahead by 11pp.
7 Factor Breakdown
- SP FIP
- 4.1 / 4.19
- SP xFIP
- 4.25 / 4.26
- Bullpen FIP
- 4.1 / 4.19
- Lineup wOBA
- 0.308 / 0.309
- WAR
- 12.02 / 13.94
- Lineup xwOBA
- 0.323 / 0.317
- Barrel%
- 7.4 / 8.2
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Cardinals win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Elo/recent form/head-to-head/defense SFR are unimplemented MLB placeholders (always neutral) and are omitted from this chart.
Padres @ Cardinals · final [15%, 85%] clamp