NYY vs BAL
SP Shane Baz vs Elmer Rodríguez
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (4.6pp). Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp). Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.8pp).
Batting & Roster — Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Yankees has the edge in WAR (0.2pp). Orioles has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Yankees has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Yankees has the edge in Head-to-Head (1.5pp). Yankees has the edge in Park Factor (0.1pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Yankees ahead by 35pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Yankees has the edge in SP FIP (4.6pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +4.6pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Yankees has the edge in SP xFIP (1.4pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +1.4pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Yankees has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.8pp).
Yankees edge · contribution +3.8pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Yankees has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Yankees win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Orioles @ Yankees · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 7h before game time