MIL vs STL
SP Quinn Mathews vs Dustin May
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (4.4pp). Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp). Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.7pp).
Batting & Roster — Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp). Brewers has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Brewers has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.1pp).
Situational — Brewers has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Brewers has the edge in Recent Form (10pp). Brewers has the edge in Head-to-Head (0.9pp). Brewers has the edge in Elo (0.7pp).
Combining 10 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Brewers ahead by 57pp.
10 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Brewers has the edge in SP FIP (4.4pp).
Brewers edge · contribution +4.4pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Brewers has the edge in SP xFIP (1.3pp).
Brewers edge · contribution +1.3pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Brewers has the edge in Bullpen FIP (3.7pp).
Brewers edge · contribution +3.7pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Brewers has the edge in Lineup wOBA (1pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Brewers win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Cardinals @ Brewers · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time