TOR vs CIN
SP Nick Lodolo vs José Soriano
Final: CIN 5 - 6 TOR
AI Analysis Summary
Pitching — Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (9.8pp). Blue Jays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.2pp).
Batting & Roster — Reds has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp). Blue Jays has the edge in WAR (0.7pp). Reds has the edge in Lineup xwOBA (0.4pp). Reds has the edge in Barrel% (0.1pp).
Situational — Blue Jays has the edge in Home Advantage (5.6pp). Reds has the edge in Recent Form (5pp). Blue Jays has the edge in Elo (0.1pp).
Combining 9 sabermetric factors, the quantitative model sees a clear edge with Blue Jays ahead by 41pp.
9 Factor Breakdown
SP FIP
weight 12%Blue Jays has the edge in SP FIP (9.8pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution +9.8pp
SP xFIP
weight 3%Blue Jays has the edge in SP xFIP (1.8pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution +1.8pp
Bullpen FIP
weight 10%Blue Jays has the edge in Bullpen FIP (8.2pp).
Blue Jays edge · contribution +8.2pp
Lineup wOBA
weight 10%Reds has the edge in Lineup wOBA (0.2pp).
Cumulative Factor Impact (waterfall)
Starts at a neutral 50% → each factor's impact accumulates → final Blue Jays win probability. Right (green) = home favored / left (red) = away favored. Defense SFR is an unimplemented MLB placeholder (always neutral) and is omitted from this chart — Elo, recent form, and head-to-head are real per-team data.
Reds @ Blue Jays · final [15%, 85%] clamp
Model metadata
Quant model: mlb_v0.1 · generated 13h before game time